Climate change impacts on tropical and temperate fisheries, aquaculture, and seafood security and implications - A review

Golam Kibria, A K Yousuf Haroon¹ and Dayanthi Nugegoda

School of Applied Sciences, RMIT University, Australia
kibriagolam0@gmail.com
¹ Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations, Dhaka, Bangladesh

Abstract

Fish is an important source of animal protein for billions of people and in some tropical countries like Bangladesh, the Pacific islands, and the Maldives, fish provides more than 60% of animal protein supply. Climate change [the rise in temperatures (T^°C), ocean acidification (OA), sea-level rise (SLR) and extreme events (EE)] is an additional threat and risk to world fisheries, aquaculture, and seafood security, in addition, to existing threats posed by other stressors.

The T°C will have both the negative and positive effects on fisheries and aquaculture, of which, the temperate areas/countries will benefit, while the tropical regions/countries will be losers due to shifting in fish species from the tropical areas to the temperate areas to escape the warmer water. The T°C would cause coral bleaching and mortalities and may enhance seafood contamination (by algal toxins and metals). The OA would adversely affect many organisms that use calcium carbonate for their skeletons and would cause a decrease in abundance of commercially exploited seafood organisms (shellfish and finfish). SLR would cause salinisation of freshwater fisheries and aquaculture facilities and would damage or destroy many coastal ecosystems including mangroves and salt marshes, which are essential habitat for wild fish stocks. Climate change is projected to increase the frequency and intensity of EE. Besides, EE would destroy seagrass and seaweed beds and mangroves (which are important nursery areas for fishes). The economic loss and impacts on fisheries, aquaculture and seafood security due to T°C, OA, SLR, EE could be substantial in both tropical and temperate areas/countries.

To achieve sustainability in fisheries and aquaculture in line with the new global sustainable development goals (2016-2030), it will be essential to identify appropriate adaptation and mitigation measures. Such measures may include promotion of climate-smart fisheries and climate-smart aquaculture, and conservation of seagrass and seaweed beds, salt marshes, and mangroves.

Community awareness and education on climate change, an introduction of climate change courses in schools, colleges, and universities and incorporation of climate change risks in all the current and future development projects/plans would be vital to minimise threats and risks of climate change on fisheries, aquaculture, and seafood security.

This review reveals that fisheries in the least developed tropical countries/regions such as Bangladesh, the Maldives, the Pacific islands, and parts of Africa would be most vulnerable due to lack or limited resources, capacity and capabilities to adapt to climate change and high dependency on fish, fisheries, fishing and aquaculture as a source of food, animal protein, revenues, and livelihoods.

Keywords: extreme events, ocean acidification, sea-level rise, temperature

Introduction

Fish is an important source of animal protein for billions of people (about 2.6 billion people) (Allison et al 2009). It is also an important source of essential vitamins and fatty acids (e.g. omega-3 poly-unsaturated fatty acids). Fish provides about 20% of animal protein intake (Thorpe et al 2006) in 127 developing countries and this can reach to more than 60% to a poor country like Bangladesh, or 90% in Small Island Developing States (SIDS) or in coastal areas (FAO 2005). Although aquaculture (fish farming) provides a significant contribution as seafood, however, approximately two-thirds of fish are still from capture fisheries (Daw et al 2009). About 200 million people and their dependants worldwide, mostly in developing countries, live by fishing and aquaculture (FAO 2005), this includes 43.5 million directly employed in fisheries and aquaculture (of which 90% are small-scale fishers) and the rest are associated with activities generated by the supply of fish (trade, processing, transport, retail, etc.) and ‘backward linkages’ to supporting activities such as, boat building, net making, engine manufacture and repair, supply of services to fishermen and fuel to fishing boats, etc. (Daw et al 2009). Asia dominates both in capture fisheries and aquaculture, where 85.5% of the world’s fishers and fish farmers depend on fishing and aquaculture for their livelihoods (Hijioka et al 2014). Fisheries also contribute indirectly to food security by providing revenue for food-deficient countries to purchase food. Fish exports from low-income, food deficient countries are equivalent to 50% of the cost of their food imports (FAO 2005). Fish provides an important source of cash income for many rural poor. It provides support for local economies as well as a source of foreign exchange (Kibria et al 2016a).

Climate change [the rise in temperatures (T°C), ocean acidification (OA), sea-level rise (SLR) and extreme events (EE)] is an additional threat and risk to world fisheries, aquaculture, and seafood security, in addition to existing threats posed by pollution (hazardous inorganic and organic chemicals), habitat degradation, invasive species, dams and river regulations, and overfishing. This paper is a critical review of climate change impacts on tropical and temperate fisheries, aquaculture, and seafood security (Figure 1) and its implications and adaptation and mitigation measures to achieve sustainability in fisheries and aquaculture in line with the new global sustainable development goals [i.e. SDGs related to poverty (SDG 1), hunger and food security (SDG 2), action on climate change (SDG 13) and sustainable use of marine resources (SDG 14)].

Rise in temperatures (T°C)

Over the 20^th century, the earth’s surface temperature has increased by 0.76°C, of which most of the warming occurred between 1976 and 2000. Scientists believe it is likely for a further rise in earth’s temperature by another 1.8°C (range 1.1°C-2.9°C) to 4.0°C (range 2.4-6.4) by the end of 21^st century (IPCC 2007; Schmidhuber and Tubiello 2007). The temperature increase in rivers and sea-surface (due to climate change) are projected to cause substantial impacts on fisheries, aquaculture, and seafood security across the globe (negative, positive and mixed).

Fish growing seasons and fish growth: Fish living in temperate and Polar Regions could be more beneficial since larger temperature changes are expected in the higher latitudes (as compared to tropical areas where a small temperature increase is predicted). An increase in water temperature would extend the fish growing season in the temperate areas. Moreover, the rising temperature could reduce over-wintering stress normally experienced by temperate fishes (Table 1). Thus, longer growing season and lower winter stress may enhance the productivity of temperate fisheries. Aquaculture can be expanded into new areas as a result of the decrease in ice cover (Handisyde et al 2006; Ficke et al 2007; Muir and Allinson 2007).

Figure 1. Synopsis of climate change effects on river, estuary, ocean and aquatic biodiversity (fish, coral, shrimp, seagrass).

Endocrine disruption in fish: Increases in temperature and consequence decrease of oxygen supply may affect fishes’ growth (oxygen solubility in water is inversely related to temperature), reproductive success and survival. Furthermore, hypoxic condition (low levels of dissolved oxygen of <2.8 mg/l) can impair fish reproduction, alter reproductive behaviours, reduce fertilisation, egg hatching success and can cause endocrine disruption in fish (Wu 2009).

Fish diseases: At higher temperatures, there could be an increased frequency of diseases in fish (Marcos-Lo´pez et al 2010; Table 1). Moreover, fish migrating to polewards from warmer regions may serve as hosts or vectors for parasites and diseases in the new environment (Kibria et al 2016a).

Coral bleaching: Increasing temperature is causing mass coral bleaching and resulting mortalities (Hoegh-Guldberg et al 2007). Such bleaching will have rapid impacts on the diversity and species composition of coral reef fish communities and other associated organisms (see also the section on ocean acidification).

Seafood contamination: Changes in temperature may enhance contamination of seafood (fish, shrimps, oysters, crabs) with algal toxins and chemicals (metals) (Table 1).

Fish movement, fish catch, food security and fishing opportunities: Global warming would result in the poleward movement/expansion of warm water species (fish to move to colder waters to escape warmer water), resulting in increased marine fish yield in high latitudes Perry et al 2005; Last et al 2011; Cheung et al 2013; Barange et al 2014). Such movement would cause a decrease in fisheries in the tropics. As a consequence, south and southeast Asia, southwest Africa, Peru, and various small island developing states would have a significant decline in fish catch. Whereas, Norway and Iceland would have a significant increase in fish catch (Cheung et al 2013; Barange et al 2014). There could be a significant decrease in catch potentials by up to 40% in the low latitude/tropics, of which, the Indo-Pacific regions will be most highly impacted (Cheung et al 2010; Perry 2011). On the contrary, fish catch potentials in higher latitude regions will increase on an average by 30% to 70%, of which, the largest increases have been projected to occur off Norway, Greenland, Alaska (USA), eastern Russia and Iceland (Cheung et al 2010; Perry 2011). This will have a negative impact on food security in many tropical countries and small island nations who are dependent on fisheries resources for food, animal protein, revenues, and livelihoods. The poleward shifts of fish will result in associated poleward job shifts, catch and value due to shifting of fish species.

Implications of rise in temperatures: The rise in temperatures will have both negative and positive effect on fisheries and aquaculture, of which, temperate areas/countries will be winners and tropical regions/countries will be losers (due to shifting in fish species from the tropical areas to the temperate areas to escape the heat stress) (Table 1).

Table 1. Examples of the impact of the rise in temperatures on fisheries, aquaculture, and seafood (+ve = positive; -ve = negative).
Criteria	Impacts	+ve or -ve

Fish growing season	Would enhance fish growing seasons (temperate areas) (Handisyde et al 2006).	+ve (temperate)
Fish growing season	Lower wild fish mortality in winter in temperate areas (Handisyde et al 2006).	+ve (temperate)
Fish growth, reproduction and survival	Warmer temperature would enhance fish growth rates and feed conversion ratio (metabolic rate) (Handisyde et al 2006; Perry 2011).	+ve (temperate)
	Warmer temperature would cause a decrease in dissolved oxygen that may affect fish’s growth, reproductive success, and survival (Muir and Allinson 2007; Kibria et al 2016a).	-ve
	Higher water temperatures may cause changes in sex-ratio, altered time of spawning and migration (Allinson et al 2005; Handisyde et al 2006; Daw et al 2009).	-ve
Fish diversity	Reduced dissolved oxygen concentrations will generally reduce aquatic species (fish) diversity if water quality is impaired by eutrophication (Fischlin et al 2007; Bates et al 2008).	-ve
Invasive aquatic plants	The rise in global temperature would enhance invasive aquatic plants, such as Eichhornia spp. (water hyacinth) and Salvinia spp. (floating fern) (Bates et al 2008). The proliferation of aquatic plants would reduce water flows, euphotic zone in the water column and reduced areas available for inland aquaculture (cage or pen culture).	-ve
Water quality	The rising temperature will deteriorate water quality in lakes, rivers and oceans via production of algal blooms (e.g. increases in toxic blue-green algal blooms) (Fischlin et al 2007; Bates et al 2008).	-ve
Fish kills	Rise in temperature would accelerate algal blooms in water bodies; when algae die-off fish kills can occur due to depletion of dissolved oxygen levels (Kibria et al 2016a).	-ve
Filter feeding species	Growth of algae could be beneficial for filter feeding aquaculture species such as oyster, mussels and herbivorous fish (Kibria et al 2013).	+ve
Fish diseases	Rise in temperatures may cause stress, increase susceptibility to infection and diseases and mortality in both aquaculture fish and wild fish (many fish diseases display greater virulence at higher temperatures).	-ve
Fish diseases	Rise in temperatures may increase incidents of disease (e.g. white spot, bacterial kidney disease, furunculosis (Buchmann and Bresciani 1997; Jones et al 2007; Malnar et al 1988; Karvonen et al 2010) and parasites (e.g. Argulus coregoni, (a crustacean parasite of salmon) and protistan parasite, Perkinsus marinus of oysters) (Cook et al 1998; Hakalahti et al 2006).	-ve
Coral bleaching	High water temperatures would increase coral bleaching that may reduce coral reef fisheries productivity (Hoegh-Guldburg 1999 and 2005).	-ve
Seafood contamination (algal toxins)	Increased temperatures may lead to increased growth of blue-green algae/cyanobacteria in freshwater ponds, lakes, rivers (Microcystisspp. Anabaena spp.) and dinoflagellates in marine environment (Alexandrium spp., Gymnodinium spp., Procentrum spp.); both freshwater cyanobacteria and marine dinoflagelleates produce toxins (e.g. microcystins, saxitoxins, ciguatoxins), and human may be increasingly exposed to these toxins via eating algal toxins contaminated seafood (Kibria et al 2013).	-ve
Seafood contamination (metals)	Uptake and toxicity of common pollutants (e.g. metals) in seafood organisms (e.g. fish, prawn, shrimps, oysters) may enhance with increasing temperatures/global warming (Kibria et al 2016b); temperature related increases in uptake, bioaccumulation and toxicity of metals (arsenic, copper, cobalt, cadmium, and lead) have been reported for several marine organisms, including crustaceans, echinoderms, and molluscs (Hutchins et al 1996; Wang et al 2005; Khan et al 2006; Mubiana and Blust 2007; Kibria et al 2013).	-ve
Shifts in zooplankton (fish food)	Global warming is causing poleward shifts of zooplankton distributions (range shifts of zooplankton are among the fastest and largest of any marine or terrestrial group) and earlier timing of life history events such as spawning (Richardson 2008). Such changes in abundance and community structure can cause significant shifts in marine food web structure and productivity.	+ve (temperate); -ve (tropics)
Shift in fish and other species	Global warming may result in northward expansion of warm water and cold water species in North America, Europe and Asia and the southward expansion of warm water species in Australia and South America (thus would cause an increase in fish abundance and species richness towards pole/high latitudes) (Perry et al 2005; Last et al 2011; Cheung et al 2013; Barange et al 2014).	+ve (temperate); -ve (tropics)
	Fish species in low latitude or equatorial extents will move away from the region resulting in decreased in fish abundance and tropical fish species diversity (Rijnsdorp et al 2009).	-ve (tropics)
	In the North Sea, increases in sea temperature caused shifts in distribution of demersal fishes towards north pole including the commercially exploited cod (Gadus morhua) and common sole (Solea solea) (Perry et al 2005); shifted species tend to have faster life and were of significantly smaller body sizes, faster maturation, and smaller sizes at maturity than non-shifting species (Perry et al 2005).	+ve (temperate)
	A recent study found that 45 Australian warm temperate fish have colonized and shifted in their poleward distribution towards south i.e. region of cooler water (30 species exhibited an increase in abundance in some parts of Tasmanian, range of which ca. 63% are perch-like fish and ca. 17% are elasmobranches) (Last et al 2011).	+ve (temperate)
	Tuna populations may spread towards presently temperate regions (Wernberg et al 2011).	+ve (temperate)
	Ocean warming caused a decline of giant kelp (Macrocystis pyrifera) and poleward extension of range by an herbivore, such as a sea urchin, Centrostephanus rodgersii (@~160 km/decade) and other trophically important reef organisms in Australia (Wernberg et al 2011).	Not known
Fish movement to deeper water	Warm surface water temperatures in the ocean are driving some fish species to deeper water to escape heat or warming, for example in European North Sea (Perry et al 2005; Dulvy et al 2008; Nye et al 2009) this will increase costs of exploitation, as fish moves to deeper waters.	-ve
Fish movement to deeper water	Fish species will move to off-shore to cooler refuges as the ocean warms up (Dulvy et al 2008), thus catch potential shifts to off-shore regions from coastal areas with increases in the cost of exploitation.	-ve
New fishing zone/fisheries, fish catch	Shifts in fish species from tropical to temperate areas (due to global warming) will create some new fishing zones, for example, species that habitually live along the African coasts are moving northwards, such as black codling (Physiculus dalwigki), rockling (Giadropsarus granti) and snake eel (Pisodonophis semicinctus) which are now spotted in Galician waters (F and A Europe 2007; Kibria et al 2013).	+ve (temperate)
	Catch potential in southern parts of Australia and Africa would increase in the poleward continental margins (because most commercially exploited species are associated with continental shelves) (Cheung et al 2010).	+ve (temperate)
	In sub-tropical and temperate regions, cold-water species are being replaced by warm-water species (Cheung et al 2010) and therefore new fisheries are being developed for warm water species in UK waters (Pinnegar et al 2010; Perry 2011).	+ve (temperate)
	Ocean warming and retreat of sea ice in high-latitude regions would open up new habitat for lower latitude species (Cheung et al 2010), the new habitat for lower latitude species may result in a net increase in catch potential in high latitude regions.	+ve (temperate)
Seafood security	Due to the shift of species in higher latitudes/temperate areas (due to climate change), it will have implications on seafood security in many tropical countries and island nations and their communities who depend strongly on fisheries resources for food, revenues, and livelihoods (Cheung et al 2010; Kibria et al 2016a).	-ve (tropics) +ve (temperate)
Livelihoods	The temperate countries will benefit with regard to job, catch and value since tropical species are shifting/would shift towards pole as sea surface temperature warms (Murawski 1993; Nye et al 2009).	+ve (temperate); -ve (tropics)

Ocean acidification (OA)

The ocean absorbs approximately ~30% of atmospheric CO₂ resulting from human activities including fossil fuel burning, industries, cement manufacturing, deforestation and land use changes. CO₂ dissolves in water, forms carbonic acid (H₂CO₃) and cause a decrease in ocean pH (due to increase in hydrogen ion concentration or H⁺). This is called ‘Ocean acidification’ (Roessig et al 2005; Meehl et al 2007; Turley et al 2010). The higher absorption of CO₂ has already acidified the surface layers of the ocean causing an overall decrease of 0.1 pH units since the pre-industrial period, which is equivalent to a 30% increase in hydrogen ion concentration or acidity. The surface ocean pH is projected to decrease by 0.3-0.4 pH units by 2100 relative to pre-industrial conditions, equivalent to 150% increase in acidity (H⁺) and 50% decrease in CO₃² (Meehl et al 2007; Wittmann and Pörtner 2013). OA is projected to adversely affect many organisms that use calcium carbonate for their skeletons and shell including krill, pteropod, molluscs, corals, echinoderms, and fish.

Fish food organisms (krill, pteropods): Many animals like whales, seals, penguins and fishes are dependent on krill (Euphausia superba) fishery. But krill population could be vulnerable to OA. For example, at elevated seawater CO₂ levels, egg hatching rates of krills were found significantly lower, it also showed delayed embryonic development (Kawaguchi et al 2013). Pteropods are also an important food source for fish such as juvenile salmon, tiny krill, and giant whales) and birds. The shells of pteropods, Limacina helicina antarctica – living in the seas around Antarctica are being severely dissoluted by ocean acidification according to a new study (Bednaršek et al 2012). The consequence of loss of shell of pteropods due to OA will be increasing the vulnerability of pteropods to predation and infection, which, will in turn impact other components of the food web.

Molluscs (abalone, oyster, clam, and mussel): OA would cause growth reductions and abnormal larvae in abalone; decreased calcification and larval shell growth and abnormal larvae in oysters; reduced survival and calcification rates and decreased fertilisation and embryo development in scallops and dissolutions of shells in scallops and mussels (Table 2).

Corals: Increasing OA can significantly reduce the ability of reef-building corals to produce their skeletons via reduced calcification (Bednaršek et al 2012). For example, Albright et al (2010) demonstrated that OA could comprise successful fertilisation, larval settlement, growth and survival of Elkhorn coral, Acropora palmate (an endangered and critical reef-building species which once dominated in the tropical coral reef ecosystems). Research results (Albright et al 2010) suggest that OA could severely impact the ability of coral reefs to recover from disturbances since fertilisation, settlement and growth were all negatively impacted by increasing pCO₂. Many marine species use coral reefs as habitat and refuge, for example, one-fourth of worlds’ marine fish species use the coral habitat at least during a part of their lifetime.

Echinoderms (sea urchin and sea cucumber): OA caused a decrease in survival, reduced calcification and fecundity in sea urchin and sea cucumber (Table 2).

Fish: Elevated CO₂ results in tissue damage in internal organs (liver, pancreas, kidney, eye, and gut) of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) larvae; reduced survival in estuarine fish (Menidia beryllina) and reduced learning abilities and lateralisation (swim towards predator smells instead of away) in reef-fishes Pomacentrus amboinensis and Neopomacentrus azysron (Table 2).

Seagrasses and seaweeds: OA has some beneficial impacts as well. An increase in CO₂ levels would enhance the productivity of non-calcifying seagrasses and seaweeds as they require CO₂ for photosynthesis and growth. Photosynthetic organisms such as seagrasses showed higher growth rates, as much as five-fold or higher with acidification (Hendriks et al 2010). Photosynthesis and growth rates of red seaweeds, Porphyra yezoensis were enhanced under higher CO₂ concentrations (concentrations of 1,000 and 1,600 ppm). Similarly, enhancement of growth with increasing CO₂ is also reported in Gracilaria spp. (red algae) species (Roleda and Hurd 2012) (Table 2).

Implications of OA: OA is an effect of climate change and is one of the most critical anthropogenic threats to marine life. Increases in CO₂ levels will make the ocean more acidic (decrease in seawater pH) adversely affecting many organisms that use calcium carbonate for their skeletons and shells, such as molluscs, corals, echinoderms. It will have negative effects on fish food (krill, pteropods) and seafood organisms (e.g. molluscs, corals, echinoderms, fish) but positive effects on seaweeds and seagrasses (Table 2). OA have important biological and food security implications as the coastal ocean supports most of the global shellfish and finfish production. In addition, OA would cause a decrease in abundance of commercially exploited seafood organisms (shellfish and finfish) and reduce the resilience of other environmental stressors on the marine ecosystem. Many of the small Pacific Island nations depend on coral reef fisheries for 90% of their animal protein needs and for livelihoods (where there is a limited agricultural alternative) (Kibria 2015a). In short, the economic loss and impacts on food security due to OA could be substantial in both tropical and temperate areas/countries. OA is a direct consequence of increasing atmospheric CO₂ concentrations and is an emerging global problem. To avoid substantial damage to ocean ecosystems and marine life, significant and rapid reductions in global CO₂ emissions are needed from human activities (Kibria 2015a).

Table 2. Examples of the impact of ocean acidification (OA) on fisheries, aquaculture and seafood.
Species group	Impacts	^-

Phytoplankton	OA would increase the frequency and severity of harmful algal blooms that produces toxins (Hallegraeff 2010). For example, the production of potent neurotoxins — domoic acid by common and sometimes prolific diatom species of Pseudo-nitzschia and saxitoxin by dinoflagellate species of Alexandriumhas been shown to increase markedly under OA conditions (Hwang and Lu 2000; Fu et al 2010; Tatters et al 2013).	-ve
Phytoplankton	The fish-killing alga, Heterosigma akashiwo (red tide forming raphidophyte) responded strongly to an increase in dissolved CO ₂ (increased rates of growth and primary productivity) (Clark and Flynn 2000; Fu et al 2008) regardless of temperature (Fu et al 2008). The fact that H. akashiwo may gain a competitive advantage due to OA would seriously threaten salmon aquaculture in Canada (Haigh et al 2015).	-ve
Macroalgae	Elevated pCO₂ can affect calcifying macroalgae, such as the ability to build and maintain the calcified component of their tissues (Hurd et al 2009). Hofmann et al (2012) observed reduced calcification and growth for a cosmopolitan species of red algae when exposed to elevated pCO₂ over a 4-week period.	-ve
	The direct effect of OA is hypothesised to be positive on non-calcifying species due to enhanced availability of CO₂ for carbon assimilation but negative for calcifying species due to reduced growth and dissolution of protective shells (Haigh et al 2015).	+ve
	Seagrasses will likely benefit from increased pCO₂ because higher DIC (dissolved inorganic carbon) helps them compensate for light limitation (Haigh et al 2015), for example, seagrasses showed higher growth rates, as much as five-fold or higher with acidification (Hendriks et al 2010).	+ve
	The growth rates of red seaweeds, Porphyra yezoensis and Gracilaria (red seaweed) were enhanced with increasing CO ₂ concentrations (Roleda and Hurd 2012).	+ve
Mesozooplankton (copepods)	Mesozooplankton (such as Acartia spp. and Calanus spp.) are critical for several commercially-valuable fish species that prey on them directly, such as Pacific Herring, Pacific Hake, Pacific Sardine, various salmon species, and Spiny Dogfish ( Squalus acanthias) (Mackas et al 2001), In Puget Sound, Washington egg hatching in Calanus pacificus was reduced under elevated pCO₂whereas survival rates were unaffected by OA (Haigh et al 2015).
Pteropods	Live pteropods harvested from waters under, or near, saturation with respect to aragonite showed evidence of dissolution (Bednarsek et al 2012; Roger et al 2012; Bednarsek et al 2014).	-ve
	Live pteropods incubated for short periods at the high end of present-day pCO₂and elevated pCO₂showed reduced calcification (Comeau et al 2010; Lischka and Riebesell 2012).	-ve
	Larvae of the Mediterranean pteropod, Cavolinia inflexa were exposed to pH 8.1, 7.82 and 7.51 (equivalent to pCO₂ levels of 380, 857 and 1,713 μatm respectively); larvae exhibited malformations and lower shell growth at pH 7.82 and the larvae did not make shells at pH 7.51 (Comeau et al 2010).	-ve
	Shelled pteropod Clio pyramidata exposed at W_arag< 1 caused shell dissolution (Feely et al 2004; Orr et al 2005).	-ve
Corals	Negative effects on calciferous animals, including slowed rates of coral growth (Hoegh-Guldberg et al 2007) (note: corals are extremely sensitive to temperature changes since increased water temperatures due to global warming can cause mass coral bleaching (white or “bleached”) the symbiotic algae that live within coral tissues can be expelled by heat stress; when the algae are expelled, the coral appears white or “bleached”; these algae provide corals with most of their food and oxygen ( http://icran.org/pdf/ClimateChangeIssueBriefs.pdf).	-ve
Molluscs	Blacklip abalone, Haliotis rubra and Greenlip abalone, H. laevigata exposed to pH 7.78 and pH 7.39 caused 5% and 50% growth reductions respectively (Harris et al 1999).	-ve
	OA significantly reduced calcification (by 40%), growth (by 17%) and development (by 25%) in molluscs (reviewed by Kroeker et al 2013).	-ve
	Crim et al (2011) reported increased abnormalities in Northern Abalone, shell abnormalities increased substantially, occurring in 99% of larvae at pCO₂1,800 μatm. In the field, the abnormal larvae would be more susceptible to predation.
	Clam, Mercenaria mercenaria when exposed at W_arag= 0.3. caused shell dissolution in juvenile clam leading to increased mortality (Green et al 2004).	-ve
	Embryonic growth was reduced and hatching delayed under elevated pCO₂(Sigwart et al 2016).	-ve
	The Pacific oyster juveniles and adults exposed to elevated PCO₂caused in decline in calcification (Gazeau et al 2007).	-ve
	Parker et al 2010; Barros et al 2013; Kurihara et al (2007) reported increased abnormalities in Pacific oyster larvae under elevated pCO₂.	-ve
	Hettinger et al (2012) conducted some experiments to investigate the consequences of OA (at three levels of seawater pH 8.0, 7.9 and 7.8) for early life stages of the Olympia oyster (Ostrea lurida) and found a 15% decrease in larval shell growth rate, a 7% decrease in shell area at settlement and 41% decrease in shell growth rate after a week under pH 7.8.	-ve
	Oyster, Crassostrea gigas exposed to pCO₂ 740 ppmv caused 10% decrease in calcification rate (Gazeau et al 2007).	-ve
	In juvenile Bay scallops, elevated pCO₂ does not affect shell and tissue growth but does reduce survival (Talmage and Gobler 2011).	-ve
	It has been observed that calcification rates declined under reduced pH in adult Zhikong scallops (Chlamys farreri) (Mingliang et al 2011).	-ve
	Giant scallop, Placopecten magellanicus exposed to pH 8.0 showed decreased fertilisation and embryo development (Desrosiers et al 1996).	-ve
	The threads of the common mussel (Mytilus trossulus) have been weakened under elevated pCO₂ (O’Donnell et al 2013).	-ve
	Mussel, Mytilus edulis exposed to pH 7.1 / 10,000 ppmv caused shell dissolution (Lindinger et al 1984).
	Mytilus edulis (mussel) specimens were cultured under current and projectedpCO₂ (380, 550, 750 and 1,000 μatm), at 1,000 μatm pCO ₂, juvenile mussels did not produce aragonite (Fitzer et al 2014).	-ve
Echinoderms	Clarke et al (2009) examined the effects of lowered pH (6.0, 6.5, 7.0, 7.5, 7.7, 7.8 and ambient) on larvae from tropical (Tripneustes gratilla), temperate (Pseudechinus huttoni, Evechinus chloroticus), and a polar species ( Sterechinus neumayeri). Lowering pH resulted in a decrease in survival and reduced in size and calcification.	-ve
	Survival of juveniles Strongylocentrotus droebachiensis (sea urchin) was reduced when both larvae and juveniles were reared at elevated CO₂elevatedpCO₂ (1,200 μatm, compared to control 400 μatm) (Dupont et al 2013). In addition, elevated pCO₂ had reduced female fecundity (decreased by 4.5-fold), had a negative impact on subsequent larval settlement success and five to nine times fewer offspring reached the juvenile stage.
	The percentage of normal larvae and size of larvae reduced and arm asymmetry increased when Echinometra mathaei (sea urchin) were exposed to elevated CO₂, irrespective of the parental environment; adult urchins exhibited a slight decline of growth in low pH treatments and moderately reduced respiration at the intermediate level (Uthicke et al 2013).	-ve
	The sperm motility of a reef-dwelling sea cucumber species (Holothuria sp.) was impaired at pH values <7.7 (Morita et al 2010).	-ve
	In the eastern Atlantic Ocean, keystone brittle star - Ophiothrix fragilis was found to be especially sensitive to small changes in pH, with 100% mortality of larvae at pH 7.9 vs. 30% mortality in the control (pH = 8.1). (Dupont et al 2008). Exposure to low pH also resulted in a temporal decrease in larval size as well as abnormal development and skeletogenesis (abnormalities, asymmetry, and altered skeletal proportions).	-ve
Crustaceans	Crab, Cancer pagurus exposed to 1% CO₂, 10,000 ppmv reduced thermal tolerance and aerobic scope (Metzger et al 2007).	-ve
	Copepods exposed to 860–22,000 ppmv CO₂ caused increased mortality with increasing CO₂ concentration and duration of exposure (Watanabe et al 2006).	-ve
	In Puget Sound, Washington egg hatching in copepod, Calanus pacificus was reduced under elevated pCO₂whereas survival rates were unaffected by OA (Haigh et al 2015).	-ve
	Under higher pCO₂ the Antarctic krill species, Euphausia superba, experiences ingestion rates 3.5 times higher than those under present-day conditions, and consistently higher metabolic rates (Saba et al 2012).	-ve
	Krill, Euphausia pacifica exposed to pH 7.6 caused mortality increased with increasing exposure time and decreasing pH (Yamada and Ikeda 1999).	-ve
	The cold-water barnacle, Semibalanus balanoides exposed at elevated CO₂showed reduced adult survival and slowed embryonic development, which delayed the time of hatching by 19 days (Findlay et al 2009).	-ve
	The cold-water shrimp, Pandalus borealis (common and commercially important in British Columbia), exhibited delayed juvenile development at reduced pH (Bechmann et al 2011).	-ve
Fish	Experiment with highly commercially important mass spawning fish, Atlantic cod larvae (Gadus morhua), showed detrimental effects; exposure to elevated CO₂ resulted in severe to lethal tissue damage in many internal organs (liver, pancreas, kidney, eye, and gut) in larval cod; degree of damage increased with increase of CO₂ concentrations (Frommel et al 2012).	-ve
	The exposure of early life stages of a common estuarine fish (Menidia beryllina) to elevated CO₂concentrations caused severely reduced survival (70% reduction) and growth rates (18% reduction in length of embryos); the egg stage was found significantly more vulnerable to high CO₂induced mortality than the post-hatch larval stage (Baumann et al 2012).	-ve
	Tropical reef fish, damselfish, Pomacentrus amboinensis exposed to elevated pCO₂ (850 µatm) showed reduced learning abilities related to common predator avoidance (failed to respond to predator odour) (Ferrari et al 2012).	-ve
	Domenici et al (2012) tested the effect of near-future CO₂concentrations (880 µatm) on behavioural lateralization (to turn left or right) in the reef fish,Neopomacentrus azysron. They found that elevated CO₂ disrupted individual lateralization. Given that lateralization enhances performance in a number of cognitive tasks and anti-predator behaviours, it is possible that a loss of lateralization could increase the vulnerability of larval fishes to predation in a future high-CO₂ ocean (Haigh et al 2015).	-ve
	Hurst et al (2016) examined the growth responses of northern rock sole (Lepidopsetta polyxystra) eggs and larvae across a range of CO₂ levels (ambient to 1,500 matm) and found that early life stages of northern rock sole are less sensitive to ocean acidification and little effects of CO₂ level on egg survival or size at hatch.	NE
	Munday et al (2016) tested the effects of elevated CO₂ on the early life history development and behaviour of yellowtail kingfish; they found that the early stages of kingfish are tolerant to rising CO₂ levels and there was no effect of elevated CO₂ on survival to hatching or on larval behaviour.	NE
W = CaCO₃ saturation state with respect to aragonite; DIC₌dissolved inorganic carbon; NE = no effect; PCO ₂= partial pressure of CO₂; ppmv= parts per million by volume.

Sea-level rise (SLR)

Sea level rise (SLR) is the average increase in the level of world’s oceans. Global warming or increases in temperatures cause the oceans to warm and expand in volume inducing a rise in the sea levels. Furthermore, warmer climate facilitates melting of glaciers, ice caps and ice sheets causing the further addition of water to the oceans (Kibria and Haroon 2016). The latest IPCC report predicts a sea-level rise of 0.18-0.38 m (low greenhouse gas emissions- B1 scenario) and 0.2 to 0.59 m (high greenhouse gas emission-A1F1 scenario) at the end of this century (Solomon et al 2007). Rising sea level is one of the most catastrophic consequences of global warming/climate change and a major threat to coastal habitats, coastal aquaculture and fisheries worldwide (Kibria 2016) (Table 3).

Coastal ecosystems: Saltwater intrusion as a result of a combination of SLR, decreases in river flows and increased drought frequency are expected to alter estuarine-dependent coastal fisheries during this century in parts of Africa, Australia and Asia (Fischlin et al 2007). The rising sea-level would most likely damage or destroy many coastal ecosystems including mangroves and salt marshes. The Sundarbans mangrove forest of Bangladesh is expected to get more saline due to increasing SLR allowing saline water to penetrate further into the forest with tidal and storm surges, higher evapotranspiration due to hotter weather and a reduction of freshwater in the dry season flowing into its rivers due to changing rainfall patterns (Ahmed et al 1999). It is predicted that the Sundarbans will reduce from 60% to 30% in the year 2100 with 88 cm SLR (CEGIS 2005). In worst scenario, a 32 cm SLR may flood 84% of the Sundarbans possibly by 2050 and with an 88 cm SLR possibly by 2100 the entire Sundarbans might be lost (Mohal et al 2006). The World Bank predicts that the Sundarbans will be completely lost with 1.0 m SLR (World Bank 2000). These ecosystems are essential habitat for wild fish stocks and a source of natural seed for aquaculture (Table 3).

Aquaculture facilities: Higher sea levels can lead to intrusion of saline water into lowland and deltaic regions causing a destruction of freshwater aquaculture facilities (e.g. salinisation of freshwater ponds, dams, lakes, streams, creeks, rivers). In the case of Bangladesh, the SLR may cause loss/shift of natural breeding grounds of native freshwater fish species in Bangladesh (Table 3). On the other hand, sea level rise would expand areas suitable for brackish water aquaculture.

Corals: A rise in sea levels would increase the depth of water above coral reefs, resulting lower light penetration to support photosynthetic algae living within coral (e.g. Zooxanthellae). If the water depth increases faster than the corals can grow, they could effectively destroy habitats for fish upon which many artisanal fisheries are dependent. Two-thirds of all marine fish species are associated with coral reef environments (Guidry and Mackenzie 2012; http://eatlas.org.au/content/relationship-between-corals-and-fishes-great-barrier-reef).

Implications: SLR would cause salinisation of freshwater ponds, dams, lakes, streams, creeks, rivers, it would affect nursery and breeding grounds of many estuarine fish and migratory species. The possible drowning of corals reefs and coral mortality due to SLR would impact fisheries depending on coral habitat. One of the positive aspects of SLR is that it will create new areas for brackish water fish/shrimp. In short, the economic loss and impacts on food security due to SLR would be in both tropical and temperate areas/countries. The risks of sea-level rise should be incorporated in all the current and future development projects including infrastructure, agriculture, fisheries, water projects. Community awareness and education on the sea-level rise would be vital. Government and private sectors should formulate appropriate policies and actions to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases, that cause climate change and the sea-level rise (Kibria 2016).

Table 3. Examples of the impact of sea-level rise (SLR) on fisheries, aquaculture, and seafood.
Category	Impacts	-ve/+ve

Surface and groundwater	Contamination of both surface and groundwater resources with chloride (salt), in particular in the low-lying coastal areas due to saltwater intrusion (Kibria 2016).	-ve
Coastal habitats and wetlands	Coastal habitats and wetlands (salt marshes, mangroves, and intertidal areas) would be inundated due to SLR, resulting in loss or damage of wetlands including Ramsar/ World Heritage sites (Kibria 2016).	-ve
Nursery and spawning grounds of fish/shrimp	Mangroves and coastal habitats used by commercial fish, shrimps, crabs, as a nursery or spawning grounds, could be destroyed (Kibria 2016).	-ve
Coastal aquaculture	Salinisation of freshwater aquaculture facilities, therefore, would reduce the area available for freshwater aquaculture (Kibria 2016).	-ve
Rice-Fish aquaculture	Likely salinisation of rice fields in coastal areas of Bangladesh, which would hinder integrated rice-fish culture in coastal districts (Kibria and Haroon 2016).	-ve
Breeding grounds of native fish	SLR may cause loss/shift of natural breeding grounds of native freshwater fish species in Bangladesh - the Gangetic major carps (rui -Labeo rohita, katal -Catla catla, and mrigal - Cirrhinus cirrhosus) in the Halda River, Chittagong (Kibria and Haroon 2016).	-ve
Estuarine fish and migratory species	Nursery and breeding grounds of many estuarine and migratory fish species residing in the Sundarbans mangroves in Bangladesh may be affected due to SLR (World Bank 2000) and this would impact aquaculture (shrimps/prawns/fish/crab) seed supply and fisheries in general (Kibria and Haroon 2016).	-ve
Coral-associated fisheries	Drowning of coral reefs, the amount of light reaching corals is reduced due to SLR, in particular, the slow growing coral species that are living at their physiological depth limit are especially susceptible to the consequences of SLR. The synergetic effects of the rise in surface temperatures (Table 1) and ocean acidification (Table 2) and SLR (Table 3) on corals would reduce growth rates of corals impacting fisheries depending on coral habitats (Guidry and Mackenzie 2012).	-ve
Fishing harbours, fishers’ homes	SLR may cause loss of fishing harbours and fishers’ homes.	-ve
Brackish water aquaculture	SLR also will create new areas for brackish water fish/shrimp aquaculture (Kibria and Haroon 2016).	+ve

Extreme events (EE)

Climate change is projected to increase the frequency and intensity of extreme events such as cyclones, heavy precipitation, floods, droughts, hot days, heat waves, dry spell, bush fires/forest fires (IPCC 2007). Global warming (warmer oceans) is likely to intensify cyclone activity and heighten storm surges. This would cause greater surges to move further inland, threatening larger areas (Wheeler 2011). The increase in the frequency of high water events would cause flooding of low coastal zones and potential inundation of thousands of kilometres.

Storms: Increased intensity and frequency of storms may cause mortality of corals; destroy seagrass and seaweed beds and mangroves; erode turtle’s eggs and nest in beaches; introduce disease and predators in aquaculture facilities; increase the risk of accidents to fishers; and damage of aquaculture installations (see also Table 4).

Floods: Floods will have both negative and positive effects on fisheries and aquaculture. For example, floods will change the salinity in freshwater and brackish water fishponds; fast flowing rivers (due to floods) would injure larval and juvenile fish; damage fisheries assets (fish ponds, weirs, pen, cages; rice fields); on the other hand, floods will enhance migration of fish, enhance spawning of native fishes (which require flood pulse); improve water quality of rivers and lakes (see also Table 4).

Droughts: Drought would limit water supplies and water availability for aquaculture; increase the competition for water resources for aquaculture, agriculture, livestock, drinking; and may cause drying out of lakes, ponds, and loss of fish habitats (see also Table 4).

Bush/forest fires: It is projected that the incidence of bush/forest fire would increase in many countries including Australia (as a consequence of climate change). During and after the fire, nutrients from ash and debris would enter into water bodies that may cause water turbid resulting in fish kills (see also Table 4).

Implications: Extreme events would destroy seagrass beds and mangroves (which are nursery areas for fishes). Floods will have both negative and positive effects on fisheries and aquaculture. Drought would increase competition for water resources. In short, the economic loss and impacts on food security due to EE could be substantial in both tropical and temperate areas/countries.

Table 4. Examples of the impact of extreme events (EE) on fisheries, aquaculture, and seafood.
Extreme events	Impacts	-ve/+ve

Storms	Storm and cyclone events can reduce coral growth and increase coral mortality ( http://icran.org/pdf/ClimateChangeIssueBriefs.pdf).	-ve
	Frequent or more severe storms may destroy seagrass beds and mangroves (Hobday et al 2006) which are habitats for fish.	-ve
	Storms may shift the distributions and compositions of seaweed (kelp) ecosystems (Hobday et al 2006).	-ve
	Climate – related increases in wave energy and storm events may erode nesting beaches and reduce egg survival of turtles (Hobday et al 2006).	-ve
	Storms may facilitate the introduction of diseases or predators into aquaculture facilities (Kibria et al 2016a).	-ve
	Coastal ponds, sea cages, and other aquaculture installations would be at greater risk of damage during storms. Storms may cause loss of aquaculture stocks and fishing gears deployed.	-ve
	The increase in the frequency and intensity of storms would increase the risks of accidents to fishers (both inland and coastal) and coastal community (Allison et al 2009).	-ve
	Increase in the frequency and intensity of storms would increase aquaculture and fishing insurance costs.	-ve
	Increased in the frequency and intensity of storm events may cause greater nutrient, sediment, and contaminant loads into lakes, rivers and this, in turn, would increase the water quality problems (Kibria et al 2016a).	-ve
Floods	Would cause changes in freshwater and brackish salinity of aquaculture ponds	-ve
	Floods may damage productive assets (fish ponds, weirs, rice fields, etc.) and homes (Allison et al. 2009).	-ve
	Floods would help increase movement of sediments and nutrients and energy, which are vital for aquatic ecosystem functions (Kibria and Haroon 2016).	+ve
	Floods would enhance migration of aquatic biodiversity (fish) and helps dispersal of fish and prawn larvae (Kibria and Haroon 2016).	+ve
	Floods/ high rivers flow enhances spawning of native fishes (flood pulse is a cue for spawning of the Gangetic major carps and many native fishes in many regions including Bangladesh) (Kibria and Haroon 2016).	+ve
	Floods will improve the water quality of rivers, lakes by flushing out salt from coastal rivers/lands, reducing the problem of dissolved oxygen or algal blooms and dilution of chemical and biological pollutants (Kibria and Haroon 2016).	+ve
	Projected increase in rainfall would increase the amount of water available for irrigation, fish ponds and freshwater aquaculture facilities (Kibria and Haroon 2016).	+ve
Drought	Prolonged drought may cause loss of fish habitats and wetlands (Kibria et al. 2016a); it would reduce the quality of fish habitat, and fish may be overcrowded in small refuge pools that can cause a decline in fish populations (Kibria et al 2010).	-ve
	May cause changes in lake and river levels affecting the abundance, distribution, and composition of fish stocks (Handisyde et al 2006; Muir and Allison 2007).	-ve
	Possibilities of loss of freshwater salmon habitat as a result of prolonged drought (Fischlin et al 2007).	-ve
	Prolonged drought may change in inland fish migration and recruitment patterns (Handisyde et al 2006; Muir and Allison 2007).	-ve
	Drought may cause poor water quality causing more fish diseases (Kibria et al 2016a).	-ve
Precipitation	Intense precipitation means more water available for aquaculture (Kibria et al 2016a).	+ve
Precipitation	Where rainfall would decrease, it would reduce the opportunity for farming, and aquaculture (Allison et al 2009).	-ve
Bush fires/forest fires	Increased frequency and intensity of bush fires may cause an increased organic matter and nutrient loads in lakes, dams, streams and rivers, causing water quality problems (turbidity and low dissolved oxygen) and fish kills (due to lack of oxygen in rivers and storages) (Kibria 2014).	-ve

Case studies: Climate change impacts on selected countries and regions

Fisheries in fish loving tropical nations such as Bangladesh, the Pacific Islands, the Maldives, and parts of Africa would be most vulnerable due to climate change (fish provides >60% animal protein supply in these countries/nations). These countries/regions are vulnerable due to lack or limited resources, capacity and capabilities to adapt to climate change (being poor) and high dependency on fish, fisheries, fishing and aquaculture as a source of food, animal protein, revenues, and livelihoods (Figure 2). River and estuarine fisheries and freshwater aquaculture in Bangladesh; lake fisheries in Africa and the coral reef fisheries in Australia, the Maldives, the tropical Pacific Islands and Colombia are threatened by climate change. The temperate North America and Europe will have both positive and negative impacts of climate change (Figure 2).

Adaptation and mitigation measures in fisheries and aquaculture

To achieve sustainability in fisheries and aquaculture in line with the new global sustainable development goals (http://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/sustainable-development-goals/), it will be essential to identify appropriate adaptation and mitigation measures, some of which are highlighted below:

Adaptation: Adaptation is an adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects, which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities. In other words, the adaptation can be considered as, tackling the effects of climate change (Kibria et al 2016a). Adaptation in fisheries in response to climate change can be achieved (by fishers to be affected) by adjusting their operations, as well as by applications of scientific and technological advances (Pullin and White 2011). Other adaptation strategies could be to exit the current fisheries and diversify the livelihoods (e.g. move from fishing to aquaculture or integrated agriculture-aquaculture farming), or shift target species or increase effort/ fishing power or access to higher value markets (Kibria et al 2013). For boom and bust fisheries, Stokes and Howden (2008) suggested to target different species in different years, change in fishery areas, change in fishing ports, change in the quota allocated for harvest, and closures in some fisheries or fishing areas.

To adapt and mitigate climate change, the following climate-smart aquaculture can be implemented in tropical poor countries, where fish are the main sources of animal protein supply and provide significant support for livelihoods for the poor: i. selection of aquaculture fish species which are tolerant to higher temperatures, salinity, diseases and low water quality; ii. integrated concurrent rice-fish-duck farming; iii. integrated brackish water aquaculture-mangrove/aqua-silviculture (the integration of aquaculture and mangrove forestry will lead to increased production due to ecosystem services, sequester carbon/sinks carbon and are more resilient to shock and extreme events); iv. the culture of seaweeds and molluscs (oysters, clams which are energy efficient aquaculture and has a relatively low carbon footprint); v. wastewater-fed aquaculture (in water-stressed countries/ areas); vi. use of agricultural crop materials or waste products for growing carnivorous aquatic species etc. One of the adaptation measures that may be taken to counteract the losses of rice lands or freshwater ponds due to SLR is to grow salt tolerant rice in affected rice areas or to grow brackish water shrimp/prawn and salt-water fish species and harvesting rainwater (in SLR prone areas) (Kibria 2015b). Simultaneous forestry, food, fish production or so-called “Three F models” can be implemented to reduce the vulnerability of coastal communities in cyclone and storm prone countries like Bangladesh. Here, mangroves (F) should be planted along the perimeter of the elevated homesteads to protect against cyclones/storms; vegetables (F) at the backyard, fish/shrimp farming (F) in dug ponds/gher. Such practices would enhance farmer’s income, diversify livelihoods and are energy and resource efficient (Kibria 2015b).

Mitigation: Mitigation is tackling the cause of climate change such as, reducing the sources or enhancing the sinks of greenhouse gases (GHG). GHG emissions from fisheries/fishing activities can be reduced by eliminating inefficient fleet structures and use of more efficient vessels and gears (FAO 2008); improving fisheries management; reducing post-harvest losses; increasing waste recycling; shifting towards static fishing technologies. Marine organisms including farmed- and capture-fished species and many of their food organisms (that build calcareous skeletal structures), reef-building corals, marine micro-organisms, invertebrates, and finfishes contribute to calcium carbonate deposits and can act as oceanic carbon sinks (Pullin and White 2011). Therefore, protection and conservation of calcifying organisms would be utmost important. Furthermore, afforestation/reforestation, mangroves restoration would help to reduce carbon dioxide from the atmosphere (via photosynthesis, carbon sequestration/sinks in sediments/soils). It (mangroves) would help reduce impacts of disasters (cyclones/storms/floods) to coastal fishers and the community acting as live seawalls, minimise soil erosion, enhance forest resources/biodiversity, and enhance water quality, fisheries, tourism business, and livelihoods (Kibria 2015b). Moreover, conservation of marine vegetated habitats (seagrasses, saltmarshes, seaweeds, and mangroves) build large carbon deposits acting as important carbon sinks and mitigate the impacts of EE and SLR on the coastline (Duarte et al 2013). In fact, the adaptation strategies that include the conservation, restoration or introduction of vegetated coastal ecosystems provide a cost-effective option for addressing the increased risk from flooding and erosion under climate change in vulnerable areas. Producing vegetated coastal protections, compared to cement-based structures (seawalls), are very cost-effective and environment-friendly.

Conclusions

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