Livestock Research for Rural Development 19 (1) 2007 Guidelines to authors LRRD News

Citation of this paper

Socio-economic analysis of the impacts of avian influenza epidemic on households poultry consumption and poultry industry in Nigeria: empirical investigation of Kwara State

A E Obayelu

Department of Agricultural Economics, University of Ibadan, Ibadan .Oyo state, Nigeria
Obayelu@yahoo.com

Abstract

The paper presents a theoretical and an empirical study of avian flu epidemic in Nigeria. A rapid assessment of the effects of avian flu outbreaks was conducted in May 2006 in kwara State. This was done by a structured interviewed schedule. Thirty Poultry farmers and 100 households were randomly selected for the interview.

The results of the analysis showed that avian flu outbreaks and spread in Nigeria have caused serious threat not only to the poultry industry but also to food security and the livelihoods of both the rural and urban communities. The study revealed that there was a fall in consumers' and producers' confidence in poultry. About 75% of poultry farmers were also found to have stopped ordering for new birds to their farms preparing to leave poultry business for other jobs the moment they disposed the birds on their farms. About 80% of the sampled households were found to have stopped the purchase and consumption of poultry products in their households for the fear of being affected by the flu. In addition, prices of chicken and egg were negatively affected with supply outweighing demand. There was a shift of consumers' attentions to consumption of beef, pork, fish, and animal skin as substitute with a decrease in the Gross Domestic Product from agriculture, increase in unemployment rate, worsen health, poverty and malnutrition level.

Poultry farmers should be encouraged, educated and assisted on the preventive measures. The farmers can be encouraged on the need for diversification since the outbreaks of the flu incidence mostly occur suddenly. Rearing of Grass cutters, cattle, rabbits and pigs, bee keeping, and snail farming as well as mushroom farming as means of livelihood should be encouraged. There must be extensive public enlightenments on the dangers of flu and how it can be overcome

Keywords: avian flu, epidemic, poultry, socio-economic


Introduction

Background to the study

Most studies in the past on the socio-economic impact of diseases affecting livestock often limit their analysis to production impacts with relatively little about subsequent impacts on health, prices, trade and markets.  The recent outbreak of poultry pandemic (A pandemic is an infectious disease, like bird flu or the avian influenza, that spreads across many countries within a short time, a sort of epidemiological form of instant globalism. It can be a catastrophic pandemic, such as the Black Death (1945-50) or the 1918 Influenza (now listed as Influenza A/H1N1), or a mild pandemic, such as the world flu pandemics of 1957 and 1968. Epidemics are local, or regional occurrences) has raised some concern about poultry production, marketing and consumption globally. Notable among these is the Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) also known as bird flu. Avian influenza is a contagious viral infection disease primarily affecting birds and sometimes mammals, such as pigs, tigers and humans. There are about 15 types that affect the respiratory, digestive and / or nervous system of many species of birds such as ducks and domestic chickens. Avian flu has the potential to develop into a global pandemic that can be as devastating as the Black Death of the 14th century. The H5N1 strain (which is one of the strains of avian flu) has a unique capacity to cause severe disease, with high mortality, in humans (Public Health Agency of Canada, 2006). Illness and death caused by this disease also have both economic and social costs. Migratory birds and mechanical vectors, such as contaminated cages and clothing, and through the international trade in live poultry, spread the infection. The disease can be transmitted to human through exposure to infected birds or handling of infected carcasses.

The outbreak of H5N1 avian influenza was first reported on the February 8, 2006 in Nigeria. The virus is now on the list of serious health problems facing many countries in the world, it threatens the economic as well as the society. The incidence of this disease in a country like Nigeria (a country where most village households maintain free ranging flocks of poultry as a source of income and food) was a "shock" to poultry farmers, consumers, and the economy because the impact ranges from market demand, market supply, financial to external effects (In epidemiology, an effect is the endpoint of a causal organism. An effect measure is an estimate of the influence of a particular factor on a population's health ) in the short run (see figure 1).


 Source: Field survey, March 2006

Figure 1.  Impacts of avian flu disease outbreak in Nigeria

This study distinguishes itself from other studies with the main objective as analysis of the social and economic effects of avian flu in Nigeria using Kwara state as case study by considering the effects on market, farm income, social cost, as well as the health implications. Specifically the study describes the theoretical underpinning of avian flu like the history and causative agents, symptoms and preventive measures with a brief review of reported cases on both human and animals in different parts of the world. The study becomes a relevant issue not only for agricultural policy makers but also for animal and human public health policy formulation. The findings also add to the scanty literature on economic and social aspects of avian flu.

Theoretical framework
History and the spread of avian flu disease

Influenza pandemics are rare but recurring events (WHO 2005). Research has shown that avian flu typically occurred every 10-50 years throughout recorded history. It has found a permanent ecological niche, becoming entrenched among domestic ducks. Avian flu has been recognised as a highly lethal generalized viral disease of poultry since 1901. In 1955, a specific type of influenza virus was identified as a causal agent of what was then called fowl plague. This virus disease was however first noticed in terns in South Africa in 1961. The virus are usually host-specific with more than 100 subtypes that only infect birds and in rare instances, pigs and cause a wide range of disease syndromes, ranging from severe to mild in domestic poultry. The various types of avian influenza virus can broadly be categorised as either low pathogenicity (LPAI) or high pathogenicity (HPAI). Strains (eg: H5N1) that cause the greatest number of deaths are called highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI). H5N1 strain originated with birds and moved to mammals, and began to affect humans after years of mutation. The first documented human infections with H5N1 avian influenza occurred in 1997 in Hong Kong, when the virus caused severe respiratory disease in 18 humans, of whom six died. Rapid destruction within three days of Hong Kong's entire poultry population, was estimated at around 1.5 million birds but opportunities for further transmission to humans was quickly averted. Since 1997, the H5N1 strain has gradually extended its reach, and has now become established within Asia. In 2003, there was the re-emergence of avian flu in Hong Kong. By September 2005, H5N1 was detected in domestic and wild birds in Russia and Kazakhstan and in wild birds in Mongolia. Isolated outbreaks of H5N1 in birds have also been reported in Romania, Russia and Turkey. The Hong Kong episode has since put the world health officials on alert because the H5N1 strain had fulfilled two of the three prerequisites for a pandemic. First, the strain was a new virus subtype to which the population would have little or no immunity, and second, the virus had the ability to replicate in humans and cause serious illness. Researches among public health officials since the beginning of 2004 have therefore been heightened on the possible prevention and control of this disease

Despite the efforts of most researchers, the H5N1 virus keeps on spreading, expanding beyond Southeast Asia and China into Central Asia and Europe. Laboratory results by scientists have shown that the virus may lead to pandemic with time. At present the H5N1 virus has become more robust than the 1997 strain capable of surviving longer under a broad range of environmental conditions. The virus has become increasingly pathogenic in poultry and has increased the range of species it can infect, now including domestic cats (in laboratory experiments) and captive tigers (after being fed infected chicken carcasses in a zoo in Thailand).

Causative agents of avian Flu to birds and human

Only domestic poultry are known to have played a role in the transmission cycle of the virus from animals to humans (Wikipedia 2006). Wild birds are the primary natural reservoir for Influenza A and are often the vector that introduces new outbreaks into domestic flocks. The virus can be highly contagious in domestic poultry, which are not as resistant as wild birds. Once present in domestic flocks, human activity becomes a risk for further transmission.

Humans get avian influenza virus infection through direct contact with bird faeces and respiratory secretions, droplets, and by mechanical transfer through contact with contaminated fomites (surfaces such as clothing, footwear, farm and transportation equipment, cages, tools, other materials and vehicles) but not through eating of cooked chickens (WHO 2004a). Influenza A (H5N1) has a documented tendency to acquire genes from other virus infecting other animals.

When a bird is infected with avian flu, it sheds the flu virus in its faeces, saliva and mucus and other birds become infected by eating or inhaling the virus. Wild migratory waterfowl can acquire HPAI infection without signs of clinical disease and spread this to domestic flocks. The virus can survive, at cool temperatures, in contaminated manure for at least three months. In water, the virus can survive for up to four days at 72ºF (oF represents degree Fahrenheit ) and more than 30 days at 32ºF (Ausvetplan 2002). Wild waterfowl can initiate HPAI outbreaks in domestic poultry through contamination of their food and drinking water supplies. In an agricultural setting, animal manure containing influenza virus can contaminate dust and soil, causing infection when the contaminated dust is inhaled. Contaminated farm equipment, feed, cages, or shoes can carry the virus from farm to farm. The virus can also be carried on the bodies and feet of animals, such as rodents. In a food handling/preparation setting, there is also some concern that avian influenza could be transmitted from uncooked birds or bird products. AI virus can contaminate eggs and poultry meat (frozen and/or commercially packaged). For example, the PAI virus can survive in frozen carcasses and blood for as long as 3 weeks (WHO 2004b).

The symptoms and effects of avian flu on birds and human

The Signs of avian influenza are extremely variable. H5N1 can replicate in a wide range of cells, resulting in a severe disseminated disease affecting multiple organs and causing high rates of mortality. The virus in most cases is carried by some birds without displaying any symptoms of the disease and can spread over great distances while remaining healthy. However, the clinical signs of birds affected with all forms of AI may show one or more of the following: Sudden death of the affected bird without clinical signs on the first day especially those that are infected with the "highly pathogenic avian influenza," characterized by very high and rapid mortality, with rates approaching 100 percent, lack of energy and appetite, decreased egg production, soft-shelled or misshapen eggs, ruffled feathers, swollen heads, cyanosis of the combs or wattles, and possibly neurologic signs and diarrhoea. Purple discoloration of the wattles, combs, and legs, nasal discharge, coughing, sneezing, lack of coordination; are other symptoms. Any poultry establishment experiencing an unusually high mortality rate (e.g. >1% daily mortality for 2 days in commercial settings and >5% for village poultry farms) and where the mortality is associated with one or more of the above signs should be suspected to have been infected with avian flu.

The symptoms of avian influenza in humans on the other hand ranged from fever, cough, sore throat, and muscle aches to eye infections (conjunctivitis), pneumonia, acute respiratory distress, viral pneumonia, and other severe and life-threatening complications (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention 2006).

A review of reported cases of avian flu on poultry and human

Computing accurately the percentage of infected persons who eventually die from the disease or from its complications is impossible because authorities do not know how many people had milder cases but did not seek medical care or how many received care that was not reported. Nearly all of the human cases resulted from close contact with infected birds. However, research has shown that since 2004, several countries in Asia reported new outbreaks of lethal avian influenza A (H5N1) infection among poultry farmers. Such countries are: Cambodia, China, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam. In similar manner the 2005 outbreaks of H5N1 disease was reported among poultry in China, Kazakhstan, Romania, Russia, Turkey, and Ukraine. China, Croatia, Mongolia, and Romania (see table 1).


Table 1.  Cases of Bird flu in animals: Avian influenza A (H5N1) infections in poultry or wild birds since December  2003

Africa              

Europe and Eurasia

Near East

South Asia

Cameroon
Niger

Nigeria

Albania, Austria, Azerbaijan, Bosnia and Herzegovina (H5), Bulgaria, Croatia, France, Georgia (H5), Germany Greece, Hungary, Italy, Poland, Romania, Russia, Serbia and Montenegro (H5), Slovak Republic, Slovenia, Switzerland, Turkey, Ukraine

Egypt

Iraq (H5)

Iran

 

India

Kazakhstan

Pakistan (H5)

Source: World Organization for Animal Health 2006


Three rare Owston's palm civets were also confirmed in Viet Nam to have been infected by avian flu. Large cats, including tigers and leopards, kept in capacity and fed on infected poultry carcasses, were reported to be susceptible to H5N1 infection. In the year 2006, several countries such as: Iraq (H5), Nigeria, Azerbaijan, Bulgaria, Greece, Italy, Slovenia, Iran, Austria, Germany, Egypt, India, France, Bosnia and Herzegovina (H5), Slovak Republic, Switzerland, Niger, Hungary, Serbia and Montenegro (H5), Pakistan (H5), Albania, Poland, Georgia, Cameroon, and Myanmar (Burma) have also reported avian flu outbreaks avian flu in their respective country (see table 1)

On March 2006, for instance, H5N1 infection was confirmed in Germany in a second mammalian species, the stone marten after the previously documentation of the effect of flu on three domestic cats in the same country following the tests conducted at Germany's Friedrich-Loeffler-Institute for Animal Health. Similar study in Germany on February 16 also confirmed H5N1 infection in 125 wild swans, ducks, geese, and birds of prey on Ruegen Island, pointing to considerable opportunities for exposures to occur in small mammals that feed on birds.

The first human case of avian flu was in 1997 in Hong Kong with H5N1 (18 cases, 6 deaths) and a repeat in 1999 and 2003 (3 cases) with H9N2 (WHO 2004c). In a similar manner in 2003 there was a report of human case in Netherlands (83 cases, 1 death) with H7N7 strain. The human disease caused by H5N1 differs from typical human flu (See figure 2 and table 2)



Figure 2.
  Map of Reported Human cases of effects of bird flu



Table 2.  Cumulative Number of Confirmed Human Cases of Avian Influenza A/ (H5N1)

Country

2003

2004

2005

2006

Total

Cases

Deaths

Cases

Deaths

Cases

Deaths

Cases

Deaths

Cases

Deaths

Cambodia

0

0

0

0

4

4

0

0

4

4

China

0

0

0

0

8

5

7

5

15

10

Indonesia

0

0

0

0

17

11

12

11

29

22

Iraq

0

0

0

0

0

0

2

2

2

2

Thailand

0

0

17

12

5

2

0

0

22

14

Turkey

0

0

0

0

0

0

12

4

12

4

Viet Nam

3

3

29

20

61

19

0

0

93

42

Total

3

3

46

32

95

41

33

22

177

98

Note: Total number of cases includes number of deaths

Source: WHO  2006a


Prevention and control measures of avian flu

Since avian Influenza virus is highly contagious and easily spread, the most common method of control is the culling (depopulation, or killing) of the infected flocks. Another method is the quarantine of affected areas until the disease is no longer present. While vaccination is possible and has been tested on a small scale, it is not widely considered a viable control method. After the contaminated flock is depopulated, buildings and equipment are rigorously disinfected before new birds are allowed, a process that takes at least several weeks. The virus can also be killed by common disinfectants or heat. For instance, heat of 170oF, has been recommended for Chicken, Turkey Dark Meat, 180oF, Ground Chicken, Turkey: 165oF, Eggs: 160oF (WHO 2004d). While the best method to prevent or limit the impact of HPAI outbreaks on public health is to promptly contain and control these outbreaks in poultry, conduct efficient surveillance and report potentially infected poultry flocks to the right authority. There is the need to implement biosecurity measures that reduce human exposure to potentially infective birds, bird debris such as litter, feather dust and husbandry equipment. The more countries in which H5N1 is detected, the greater the risk that the virus will mutate or re-assort with another influenza virus to produce a strain capable of igniting a pandemic


Methodology

Trend of poultry production in Nigeria and bird flu outbreaks

Nigeria has an estimated poultry population of around 140 million birds, largely concentrated in the southwestern part of the country. About 60% of Nigeria's poultry production takes place in small backyard farms scattered throughout the rural areas. Large-scale commercial farming of poultry occurs mainly in the northern states of Nigeria where outbreaks have been confirmed (WHO 2006b). Research findings have shown that the Nigeria poultry meat production has started growing in the last few years. It grew from 0.08million tones in 2001 to 0.11 million tones in 2004, while its percentage contribution to livestock GDP also increased from 4.29 percent to 4.45 percent in 2001 and 2004 respectively (CBN report, 2004). Also assuming a carcass weight of a fowl to be 0.75 kg, poultry production increased from 117.3 million birds in 2001 to 144.2 birds in 2004 (table 3)


Table 3.  Trend of poultry production and its share in livestock GDP in Nigeria

Year

Poultry meat output,
‘000 tonnes

Share of livestock
GDP

No of fowls produced,
 in millions

2000

88

4.29

117.3

2001

95

4.45

126.7

2002

107

4.81

142.7

2003

107.3

4.63

143.1

2004

108

4.46

144.3

Note: GDP = Gross Domestic Product

Source: Computed from Annual Report and Statement of Account, CBN, 2004


But the country became one of 13 countries that reported their first cases of H5N1 infection in birds in 2006 with serious effects on the poultry industry. The 13 countries, listed in order of reporting, are Iraq, Nigeria, Azerbaijan, Bulgaria, Greece, Italy, Slovenia, Iran, Austria, Germany, Egypt, India and France. Later, Malaysia joined the countries where flu outbreak in poultry was reported after having been considered free of the disease for more than a year. Nigeria's outbreak of highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza was initially confirmed at a single farm on 8 February before spreading to several parts of the country. By the end of February, local laboratory tests had detected the virus in 7 contiguous states in the northern and central parts of the country (Kaduna, Kano, Plateau, Katsina, Bauchi, Yobe, and Nasarawa) and in the Federal Capital Territory of Abuja. During the first week of March, the virus was detected in three additional states, Anambra, Benue, and Rivers, located in the southern part of the country (WHO 2006c) and by May 2006, the outbreaks were detected on more than 130 farms in 11 of the 37 states with over 450,000 birds reported to have either died or destroyed (Akintunde, 2006). The spread has gone to the Western part of the country with recent report of the outbreak of the disease in Ogun State, Nigeria. This means that avian flu disease has no geographical boundary.

Sampling techniques and analysis of data

There was no estimates in literature based on past flu epidemics in Nigeria before February outbreak, so this paper relies in part on evidence from the WHO and investigation from Kwara State, Nigeria. The selection of the state was based on the fact that Kwara state is one of the agricultural states in Nigeria. A cost sectional survey was carried out in Kwara state with a total sample of 30 poultry farmers and 100 households randomly selected and interviewed. The selection of poultry farmers was based on estimated size in kwara state, while a sample of 100 households was taken to be a fairly large sample that is representative of the entire households in Kwara state consuming poultry and its products. The study was conducted in May 2006 for a 3 months assessment of the effects of avian flu outbreak of February 2006 in Nigeria


Results and discussion

Effects of avian flu on poultry industry and households in Nigeria

There are only limited works on the social and economic impacts of avian flu in the affected countries of the World. However, this study investigates the extent of damages or benefits of the outbreaks on both poultry industry as well as the consuming households in Nigeria.

Economic implications

Conjectures about the possible human and economic cost of avian flu in Nigeria are fraught with uncertainty because there have been no or few economic studies on the impact of the disease (Meltzer et al.1999). The economic implications of avian flu depend on three things: whom does the virus affect, the measures taken to control it, and the wider impact on confidence. Direct economic costs include losses of poultry due to the disease and to control measures such as culling birds, with impacts extending not only to farmers but also to upstream and downstream sectors such as poultry traders, feed mills, breeding farms etc. Outbreaks of avian influenza in poultry are of great concern for the agricultural sector with considerable economic consequences. The flu brought an abrupt surge in illness and deaths of more than 450,000 birds in Nigeria, the outbreaks also overwhelmed the Nigeria health services with a called for international assistance. The empirical evidence from kwara state, Nigeria though not in the list of the affected states but one of the poultry consuming states showed some economic implications.

On the demand side

Many small-scale operators in Kwara state (farmers, traders/ local marketer) are involved in poultry production and marketing before the outbreak of avian flu in Nigeria. The large commercial producers specializing in poultry merely supply domestic markets. Avian flu outbreak in Nigeria was found to have affected those on small as well as large-scale production. They suffered from temporary loss of consumer confidence that have shifted their preference for other types of protein. About 80% of the sampled consuming households of poultry regularly demanding for poultry before avian flu outbreak in Nigeria have now changed their demand pattern to a decrease or total shift for other products (see table 4).


Table 4.  Analysis of ordering for new poultry birds and consumption of poultry products before and after the outbreak of bird flu in kwara State, Nigeria

Stakeholders

Regular increase in demand for poultry and its products before the news of avian flu outbreaks

Increase in demand for poultry after the news of avian flu outbreaks

Total

Frequency

Percentage, %

Frequency

Percentage, %

 

 

Yes

No

Yes

No

Yes

No

Yes

No

Poultry suppliers

30

30

0

100

0

5

25

25

75

Consuming households

100

100

0

100

0

20

80

20

80

Source: Field survey, May 2006


Small commercial and backyard producers suffered loss in terms of assets and income and the largest loss was observed to be borne by them and by those on medium sized commercial chicken production. Many who had borrowed money to fund their poultry production business were thrown into debt through lower price and destruction of suspected birds. About 75% of the poultry suppliers in the state have therefore decided to stop ordering for new birds to their farms and were contemplating going into other business rather than poultry business (see table 4).

There was excess supply of poultry products compared to demand leading to a drop in prices of poultry products (see tables 5 and 6). The flu outbreak also affected investors' confidence, as many interviewed have dropped the idea of embarking on poultry business in any parts of Nigeria. Such decision will eventually have a long-term consequence on economic growth and development.


Table 5.  Analysis of responses on demand and supply of poultry products by poultry keepers and consumers in Kwara State, Nigeria

Types of Birds

Before the news of Bird flu outbreak in Nigeria

After the news of Bird flu outbreak in Nigeria

Poultry Keepers
(30 selected)

Households
(100 selected)

Poultry keepers
 (30 selected)

Households
(100 selected)

DD>SS

DD<SS

CS

DD>SS

DD<SS

CS

SS>DD

SS<DD

CS

DD>SS

DD<SS

CS

Broilers

18(60)

12(40)

-

100(100)

-

-

30(100)

-

-

-

100(100)

-

Layers

30(100)

-

-

100(100)

-

-

30(100)

-

-

-

100(100)

-

Turkey

30(100)

-

-

100(100)

-

-

30(100)

-

-

-

100(100)

-

Cockerel

30(100)

-

-

100(100)

-

-

30(100)

-

-

-

100(100)

-

Turkey eggs

30(100)

-

-

100(100)

-

-

30(100)

-

-

-

100(100)

-

Chicken egg

30(100)

-

-

100(100)

-

-

30(100)

-

-

-

100(100)

-

Note: DD = demand, SS = Supply, CS = can’t say, values in parenthesis are in percentage

Source: Field survey May 2006



Table 6.  Analysis of prices of poultry products before and after the news of Bird flu outbreak in Kwara State, Nigeria

Poultry and its products

Average price before Avian flu outbreak in Nigeria (A)
in N: K

Average prices / kg after avian flu outbreak in the country (B)
in N: K

Difference in price / kg (B-A)
in N: K

Matured live broiler

700 per bird

300

400

Matured layer

 

 

 

At Point of lay

700

300

400

Culled

600

250

350

Matured live Cockerel

700 per bird

350

350

Matured live Turkey

9,000 per bird

3000

6000

Day old chick

 

 

 

Cockerel

30 per one

10

20

Pullet

120 per one

70

50

Broiler

110 per one

65

45

Day old Turkey

600 per bird

300

300

Turkey egg

150 per egg

50

100

Chicken egg

20 per egg

10

10

Source: Field survey, May 2006


On the supply side

The bird flu outbreaks affected the availability of labour and many businesses were forced to close down. This has eventually lowered the future investment and employment of people in the kwara state and Nigeria. A farm with about 20 employees in the study area was found to have reduced the number to about 3 due to the stoppage in getting new stock as well as lower prices of poultry products. Disease prevention and control strategies of bird flu were also found to have various economic and social costs and impacts. Interestingly, the most immediate economic impact arose not from actual death or sickness of birds but from the uncoordinated efforts of people to avoid becoming infected (Brahmbhatt, 2005) which may be as result of poverty, ignorance or uncared attitudes. Some of the costs government or individual farmers have incurred as aftermaths of avian flu outbreaks in Nigeria include: the costs of purchase of poultry vaccines, medications and other inputs, hiring workers for culling, cleanup, surveillance and diagnosis, as well as a payment of N250 compensation for every culled bird by government to affected poultry keepers. The cost on the control and prevention in Nigeria has been estimated to lead Nigeria government to reductions of GDP between 0.1-0.2 percent. There is also an additional loss due to a lower egg production and reduced activity in distribution channels. Other potential short-term impact was higher meat prices for all substitutes of poultry meats on domestic market. These substitutes include fish, mutton, beef and pork as a result of reduction in poultry meat and egg consumption but with increasing rise in their prices (see table 7).


Table 7.   Analysis of prices of poultry products substitute in Kwara State

Products

Average price / kg before the news of Avian flu outbreak in Nigeria (A), N: K

Average prices / kg after the news of avian flu outbreak in the country (B),
N: K

Difference in price / kg (B-A),
in N:K

Remarks

Fish

 

 

 

 

Herring (Sawa)x

140

160

20

14.3% increase

Titus (Alaran)x

250

320

70

28% increase

Kotte

150

250

100

67% increase

Stock fish (Panla)x

120

150

30

25% increase

Argentina

250

300

50

20% increase

Agbodo

250

350

100

40% increase

Catfish

300

300

00

No change

Other meat

 

 

 

 

i) Beef parts

 

 

 

 

Liver

450

500

50

11% increase

Whitebone

220

240

20

9% increase

Heart and Kidney

450

500

50

11% increase

Bone meat

200

220

20

10% increase

Tail

350

400

50

14% increase

Legs (Bokoto)x

300

350

50

17% increase

Assorted (1)

450

500

50

11% increase

Assorted (11)

220

240

20

9% increase

Head skin

300

350

50

17% increase

Thick skin

240

260

20

8% increase

Rumen (Saki)x

320

360

40

13% increase

Intestine (Abodi)x

300

340

40

13% increase

ii) Pork

200

250

50

25% increase

iii) Mutton (goat meat)

320

380

60

19% increase

iv) Rabbit (matured)

1,200 per rabbit

1,200 per rabbit

0

Unchanged

vi) Snail

45 per snail

50 per snail

5

11% increase

Note: Assorted 1 comprises of various and small parts of beef except liver and rumen. The inclusion of the livers and rumen results in assorted 11. ( )x are the local names for such meat in kwara State

Source: Field Survey, May 2006


Thus, bird flu invasion have shifted the demand curve for poultry products to the left while that of the substitutes to the right. There is a shift in trading patterns with some markets moving to fill the gap left by chicken and eggs. In addition, spill over effects are now evident in the feed industry as lower meat production pushes down protein feed ingredients and their prices down. The effects of bird flu on feeding cost remain the same except the average price of a layer mash that increased by 12.5% of the usually price before the outbreak (see table 8)


 Table 8.   Cost of poultry feed before and after avian flu outbreak in Nigeria

Types

Average cost per 50kg bag before the outbreak (N: K)

Average cost per 50kg bag after the outbreak (N: K)

Remarks on the gap

Stata mash

1300. 00

1300

Unchanged

Layer mash

1600.00

1400.00

N200 difference (12.5%) rise

Grower mash

1050.00

1050.00

Unchanged

Source: Field survey, May 2006


Societal effects of avian flu

Avian Influenza is a global challenge with animal and human health implications. It is unknown what percentages of birds that infected with H5N1 in Nigeria. Wild birds can pass on the H5N1 virus without becoming sick themselves (that is, they can be asymptomatically infected). The danger posed by wild birds is that they transmit H5N1 to domestic poultry flocks, which is a direct threat to human health. The incidence of avian flu in Nigeria has led many poultry farmers into psychological breakdown due to losses incurred. Typically avian influenza has a gross attack rate of 20-40% (Taubenberger 2005). Culling birds in order to eradicate and control the spread of the disease is have negatively affected the livelihoods of all classes of poultry owners and producers and their employees. Such an impact is most serious on the smaller family operated commercial producers for whom poultry production is their sole source of income generation. There were markets lost through the reduced ability to export restriction of movement of birds and the closure of some domestic markets, which affected income-generating ability, especially for the smaller producers in the study area and Nigeria in general. The non-consumption of poultry meat as well as its products has also affected animal protein intake of a large sector of the population in Nigeria. The most important effects were sharp decline in demand as people avoided eating poultry products out of fear of being affected.

Government efforts on prevention and control of avian flu

Some of the preventive /control measures that Nigerian government has adopted on the affected farms include: culling, disinfections, and safe disposal of carcasses. The result of the avian flu outbreaks, led Nigeria government to promulgate a law that all affected poultry within a certain radius of any discovered virus should be systematically culled, whereas those within a wider radius should be vaccinated.


Conclusion and recommendations

Policy issues, implications and recommendations


References

Akintunde O 2006 "450,0000 birds lost to killer bird flu". Thursday Nigerian Punch newspaper, June 8, 2006 pp 20

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Received 14 August 2006; Accepted 22 October 2006; Published 1 January 2007

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