Livestock Research for Rural Development 18 (8) 2006 Guidelines to authors LRRD News

Citation of this paper

Indicators to monitor trends in livestock production at national, regional and international levels

P Chilonda and J Otte

Livestock Information, Sector Analysis and Policy Branch, Animal Production and Health Division, Food and Agriculture Organisation,
Vialle delle Terme di Caracalla, 00100 Rome, Italy
Pius.Chilonda@fao.org


Abstract

Although the livestock sector has experienced phenomenal growth, different regions are responding differently to the livestock revolution. The need for indicators to monitor the livestock sector arises from the fact that livestock needs to fulfill various goals and that performance of the sector may be different from region to region, between countries and within different parts of a country. At international level, there has been variation in terms of the extent and nature of livestock sector growth and invariably the extent to which livestock can contribute towards the achievement of the millennium development goals.

This paper provides a summary of indicators that could be used to monitor trends in livestock production at national, regional and international levels and illustrates their use. The paper focuses on quantitative indicators rather than qualitative as they permit comparisons between countries and through time. Indicators that relate livestock to the economy, human population dynamics, consumption patterns and biophysical resources are presented. In addition, indicators for total livestock resources, livestock product output and trade in livestock and livestock products are presented.

The paper ends by discussing indicators to monitor the animal health situation as diseases often influence animal productivity and determine the extent to which a countries engages in international trade in livestock and livestock products.

Key words: International, livestock production, livestock resources, monitoring, national, quantitative indicators, regional, trends


Introduction

The livestock sector has experienced phenomenal growth in the last decade fuelled mainly by global expansion in demand for food of animal origin. This has been attributed mainly to population growth, urbanisation and income growth and has since been coined the 'livestock revolution' (Delgado et al 1999). In 1995, for the first time, meat volume produced in the developing countries exceeded that of developed countries and since then the gap in milk output between developing countries and developed countries has been narrowing (FAO 2005a). The livestock revolution has implications for our health, livelihoods and environment.

The need for indicators to monitor the livestock sector arises from the fact that livestock needs to fulfil various goals and that performance of the sector may be different from region to region, between countries and within different parts of a country. At international level, there has been variation in terms of extent and nature of livestock sector growth and invariably the extent to which livestock can contribute towards economic development and the achievement of millennium development goals. For example some parts of the developing countries, in particular sub-Saharan Africa, although possessing one of the largest feed resources, has lagged behind in the phenomenon of the livestock revolution which has characterised other developing regions (Mwangi and Omore 2005). Within a country livestock may be kept for various reasons among which are to achieve both national and household food security, to reduce poverty through generation of employment, income and savings, contribute to economic development though trade in livestock and livestock products and supplying raw materials to industry, while at the same time managing the environmental and public health implications of livestock production (Chilonda and Otte 2003).

Monitoring of the performance of the livestock sector can either be qualitative or quantitative. Qualitative monitoring makes simple, qualitative statements about the state of the livestock sector in relation to a policy problem or objective. On the other hand, quantitative monitoring involves setting up quantifiable indicators against which the performance of the livestock can be measured. This often requires setting up a minimum level of performance, which is regarded as acceptable (International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI) 1995). Several quantitative indicators may be used to monitor a specific objective in livestock production.

The emphasis of monitoring should be on producing summary indicators that permit comparisons across countries (and by extension within countries) and time. Indicators need to be analytically sound, easily measured, replicable, regularly updated and accurate; comprehensive and comparable over time across commodities, policies and countries, easily understood and relevant to policy makers (Legg 2003). Furthermore, key questions in the development of indicators also relate on what to monitor, how to obtain the information to monitor and who may be expected to use the indicators (Booth and Lucas 2002; ILRI 1995). In general, the data for monitoring the livestock sector may be obtained from existing sources or this may require the generation of new data.

In general, a monitoring system for livestock production needs to provide information on whether livestock is fulfilling the role it is expected to play, reveal differences between different regions and countries, if any and indicate how the livestock sector is performing in relation to its functions and objectives. Hence there is need monitor the role played by livestock in the economy and how it relates to human population dynamics, consumption patterns and indeed availability of resources in particular land, feed and water. This should include monitoring of total livestock resources, livestock product output and trade in livestock and livestock products. The animal health situation as diseases often influence animal productivity and determines the extent to which a country engages in international trade in livestock and livestock products also need to be monitored.

The objective of this paper is to give an overview of indicators that may be used to monitor trends in livestock production and for livestock sector analysis as developed and utilised in the Livestock Sector Briefs (LSB) and the Global Livestock Production and Health Atlas (GLiPHA) published by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO). LSBs are intended to give an approximate outlook for the livestock sector of a country using figures and quantitative indicators (FAO 2005b), while GLiPHA is an electronic atlas intended to increase the awareness of socio-economic, human and animal demographic and health related issues, which permits cross country comparisons and at the same time aims at improving information management and exchange at national and international levels (FAO 2005c, Clements et al 2002). The intended users of these monitoring systems range from individuals, research institutions, universities, national governments and international organisations involved in livestock production and development.

The paper focuses on quantifiable indicators as they permit comparisons between countries and can be followed through time. The paper begins by presenting indicators of livestock in the economy and socio-economic dimensions of livestock production. This is followed by indicators of livestock resources, biophysical resources in relation to the livestock inventory, output of livestock products, livestock health and finally trade.


Livestock in the economy

Agriculture is an important economic activity in most countries and is known to dominate the economies of developing countries in terms of its contribution to the gross domestic products and supporting livelihoods. Common sources of economic data include the World Bank (World Bank 2005) and national statistical reports. Livestock, like any other sector is intended to contribute to economic development of a country. As it forms part of the economy activity of a country, the livestock sector interacts with other sectors of the economy such as crop agriculture, manufacturing, etc. There is need to situate livestock in the context of the overall economy and in particular to agriculture. This can be done through the gross domestic product (GDP) and estimating the share of both agricultural and livestock GDP in the total GDP. Estimating the share of livestock GDP in agricultural GDP, gives an indication of the relative importance of the livestock sector within the agricultural economy. Annual growth rates are useful indicators of trends. Overall livestock output and productivity can be measured using the Livestock production index as illustrated in Figure 1.


Figure 1.  Evolution of the Livestock production index (1999-2001 = 100) in selected countries (1980-2004) (Source: World Bank 2005)


Socio-economic dimension of livestock resources

As livestock production is intended to satisfy various needs of the human society, socio-economic indicators are used, in particular those that relate livestock to trends in human demographics, human welfare and provide information about the supply and consumption of food of animal origin. Principal sources of socio-economic data include the World Bank (World Bank 2005); FAOSTAT (FAO 2005a), national statistical databases and reports. Relevant population segments are total population, agricultural population, economically active population in agriculture by sex, population keeping livestock and urban population as consumers of livestock products. Possible indicators that can be derived include proportions of each population segment in total population and their annual growth rates, densities on total and agricultural land, number of livestock per person, number of livestock units per person as illustrated in Figure 2.

Figure 2.  Livestock resources in relation to human population in Tanzania

Total number of agricultural households and livestock dependant households need to be estimated as they provide information of not only the distribution of livestock ownership, but also on productivity of the sector, which may be measured as output per livestock worker or household.

Furthermore, measures of human welfare such as poverty measures and the human development Index as compiled by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) are increasingly becoming important indicators in determining the potential role livestock can play (UNDP 2005). Countries with high incidence of rural poverty and poor ranking on the human development index may place more emphasis on the role of livestock in poverty alleviation. A relatively wealthier urban population entails a ready market for food of animal origin and may contribute to increased livestock sector growth. There is also need to link livestock to overall rural development. Keeping livestock so as to assure both national and household food security needs is an important goal in livestock production, and hence consumption of livestock products need to be monitored. Consumption of livestock products may be measured in terms of quantity of calories, proteins and fats derived from animal products consumed per day (Figure 3). This should include the proportion of calories, proteins and fats in the diet from all foods supplied by animal products.

Figure 3.   Per caput supply of calories from animal source foods (2002) (Source: FAO 2005b)

Total domestic supply of meat, milk and eggs produced need to be quantified especially in relation to the human population by estimating per capita consumption. Time series data are useful in providing an indication of the trends. In order to know whether consumption is increasing or declining in relation to the human population, there is need to estimate the annual growth rate per capita consumption of meat, milk and eggs. Similar products can be aggregated and then analysed by species. The importance of each product and changing consumer patterns can be measured by considering the relative contribution of each livestock product to total supply as illustrated in Figure 4.

Figure 4.  Composition of meat consumption in China (Source: FAO 2005b)


Livestock and biophysical resources

Seré and Steinfeld (1996) used land-livestock ratio as one of the criteria in describing livestock production systems of the world. Availability of land and grazing resources often determine the type of livestock that can kept and the way they are managed (i.e. predominant production systems) and extent to which livestock production can further expand. Countries and regions that are abundant in land and possessing both low human and livestock densities tend to have grassland based systems, such as most sub-Saharan countries, whereas high human and livestock densities tend to push livestock systems towards intensification such as the landless industrial systems of East and South Asia, which raise mainly monogastric animals . Indicators relating livestock and biophysical resources need to consider the different categories of land available such as total land, arable land, arable and permanent crops, permanent pastures, non arable and non permanent pastures. The proportion of each land type and their evolution over time in relation to total land is important especially that of permanent pastures.

Densities of livestock populations on total land and agricultural land are indicators of land resources available for livestock production (Figure 5) and when used along with human population pressures can be used to analyse the evolution of different livestock systems e.g. diminishing land resources due to increasing population pressure tend to drive livestock systems towards intensification (Winrock 1992).

Figure 5.  Livestock units in relation to total and agricultural land in Tanzania (Source: FAO 2005b)


Livestock resources

In order to have an indication of the livestock resources, there is need to take an inventory of livestock by species and for each species the annual growth rates. Principal species are cattle, buffaloes, sheep, goats, pigs, chickens, ducks, turkeys and other poultry. In addition, there is need to estimate the number of livestock units for each species. Livestock units are basically an 'exchange ratio' among livestock species and obtained by converting the body weight into the metabolic weight i.e body weight0.75 (Livestock, Environment and Development Initiative 2005). Table 1 provides a list of livestock units coefficients that may be used based on weights from FAOSTAT, the global statistical database compiled by the FAO (FAO 2005a).


Table 1.  Livestock units coefficients that be used for international comparisons

Region

Cattle

Buffalo

Sheep

Goats

Pigs

Asses

Horses

Mules

Camels

Chickens

Near East North Africa

0.70

0.70

0.10

0.10

0.20

0.50

0.40

0.60

0.75

0.01

North America

1.00

 

0.15

0.10

0.25

0.50

0.80

0.60

 

0.01

Africa South of Sahara

0.50

 

0.10

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.50

0.60

0.70

0.01

Central America

0.70

 

0.10

0.10

0.25

0.50

0.50

0.60

 

0.01

South America

0.70

 

0.10

0.10

0.25

0.50

0.65

0.60

 

0.01

South Africa

0.70

 

0.10

0.10

0.20

0.50

0.65

0.60

 

0.01

OECD

0.90

0.70

0.10

0.10

0.25

0.50

0.65

0.60

0.90

0.01

East and South East Asia

0.65

0.70

0.10

0.10

0.25

0.50

0.65

0.60

0.80

0.01

South Asia

0.50

0.50

0.10

0.10

0.20

0.50

0.65

0.60

 

0.01

Transition Markets

0.60

0.70

0.10

0.10

0.25

0.50

0.65

0.60

 

0.01

Carribbean

0.60

0.60

0.10

0.10

0.20

0.50

0.65

0.60

 

0.01

Near East

0.55

0.60

0.10

0.10

0.25

0.50

0.56

0.60

0.70

0.01

Other

0.60

0.60

0.10

0.10

0.20

0.50

0.65

0.60

 

0.01

For global comparisons, the concept of livestock unit is preferred to that of tropical livestock unit, which only considers livestock raised in the tropics and used extensively in the analysis of livestock systems in the tropics. In the estimation of livestock units in Table 1, it is assumed that a cow in the Unites States has the highest weight and hence a factor of one and all the coefficients for the other regions are estimated in relation to this.

The total amount of livestock present, irrespective of the species composition can then be estimated and related different human population segments and land resources. Indicators that can be used to monitor trends in livestock resources are summarised in Table 2 and their use illustrated in Figures 6 and 7.


Table 2.   Selected indicators of livestock resources derived from livestock units

Indicator

Definition

Density total land (LU/sqkm)

'Livestock units' divided by the total land area, expressed as livestock units per square kilometre

Density agric land (LU/sqkm)

'Livestock units' divided by the agricultural area, expressed as livestock units per square kilometre

Livestock units per 100 people

Total livestock units divided by total population, expressed as livestock units per 100 people

Livestock units per 100 people in agriculture

Total livestock units divided by agricultural population, expressed as livestock units per 100 people in agriculture

Proportion of  monogastrics

The proportion of monogastric animals in total livestock resources expressed as a percentage

Proportion of ruminants

The proportion of ruminants in total livestock resources expressed as a percentage


Figure 6.  Proportion of pigs and poultry in total livestock units (2003) (Source: FAO 2005c)


Figure 7.  Contribution of different species to total livestock units in Tanzania (Source: FAO 2005b)


Livestock production

Indicators to monitor production from the livestock resources need to include the total volume of meat, milk, eggs and wool produced, which should be considered by species. Total quantities of similar commodities should be aggregated and compared through time. This should include estimation of respective annual growth rate. Trends in composition of total meat and milk production will often indicate the structure of the livestock sector and which sub-sector is growing faster relative to the other sub-sectors. For each commodity produced densities of total production may be estimated both on total and agricultural land and also production by animal and livestock units so as to give an indication of how much output is produced per type of resource employed. For each commodity, the proportion of product produced by each livestock species needs to be estimated. When total production is divided by human population to obtain per capita production, this gives an indication of how far domestic production of livestock products goes to meet a desired national goal of per capita consumption and hence elimination of imports. Table 3 provides a summary of indicators that can be used to monitor production of livestock products, which needs to be accompanied by their respective annual growth rates


Table 3.   Selected indicators to monitor production of livestock products

Indicator

Description

Total production

Quantity of meat/milk/eggs produced by species slaughtered within national boundaries expressed in metric tonnes, irrespective of their origin, whether indigenous or foreign

Production density

Quantity of meat/milk/eggs t produced 'Total prod. (mt)' divided by agriculture land and/or total land expressed kilogrammes of meat per square kilometre of agricultural land per year

Per capita production

Per capita meat/milk/eggs production is the quantity of meat produced 'Total prod. (mt)' divided by agricultural population and/or total human population expressed as kilogrammes of meat per person per year

Production per animal

Quantity of meat/milk/eggs produced 'Total prod. (mt)' divided by total number of animals of the species in the country expressed as kilogrammes of meat per animal per year

Production per animal

Quantity of meat/milk/eggs produced 'Total prod. (mt)' divided by total number of animals slaughtered of the species in the country expressed as kilogrammes of meat per animal slaughtered per year. This gives an indication of the carcase weight,

Number of animals slaughtered/milked/ laying

Total number of animals slaughtered/milked/laying of the species within national boundaries, irrespective of their origin

Proportion of animals slaughtered/milked/ laying

Number of animals slaughtered/milked/laying divided by the total population of species, expressed as a percentage


Trade

Generation of foreign exchange through export of livestock and livestock products is one of the key objective of most countries in the promotion of livestock production. Some countries strive at saving foreign currency through elimination of imports by encouraging local production. Hence there is need to monitor the volume of trade i.e. quantities and value of exports and imports and their evolution over time. The position of a country whether it is a net exporter or net importer is an important indicator of food security and stability of a country and can be estimated by considering the difference between exports and imports in quantity and/or value terms. The importance of trade in livestock and livestock products in overall agricultural trade may be quantified by first estimating the proportion of agricultural trade in total trade and then that of livestock and livestock products as proportion of agricultural trade. Table 4 provides a list of indicators that may be used to monitor trends in livestock and livestock products trade. These indicators may be supplemented by calculation of respective annual growth rates.


Table 4.   Selected indicators to monitor trends trade in livestock and livestock products

Indicator

Definition

Exports - quantity mt) /Imports - quantity (mt)

Both report foreign trade (imports and exports) in quantitative forms. The unit of measure is weight (metric tons) for all commodities except for live animals which are reported in units (heads). As a general rule, trade data refer to net weight, excluding any sort of container.

Exports - value /Imports - Value

Both express foreign trade in value terms

Value of exports/imports per person

Value of exports/ imports divided by total human population

Quantity of exports/imports per person

Quantity of Export/imports divided by total human population

Net trade (quantity)

Quantity of exports less quantity of imports

Net trade (quantity)

Value of exports less value of imports

Exports, % total production/Imports, % total production

Quantity exported/ quantity imported divided by total production of the livestock product expressed as a percentage

Trade orientation

Net exports i.e. Exports - qty (mt) minus Imports - qty (mt) divided by total production expressed as a percentage

Exports/ Imports, % total population

Number of livestock of given species exported or imported divided by total population of the respective species expressed as a percentage;


Livestock health

Livestock diseases have implications on the productivity of livestock resources and hence the amount product available for human consumption and may preclude countries/regions from keeping certain types of livestock or indeed participate in foreign trade and may affect national and household food security. Controlling of livestock diseases is therefore often an important objective for most countries and indicators to monitor livestock health should be able to describe the disease status/incidence of region or nation and need to include information about annual numbers of outbreaks, cases, deaths, slaughtered animals, destroyed animals and vaccinated animals, for each animal disease. The data may be yearly disease reports or five year summaries. Table 5 provide a list of indicators that may be used for five year summaries and illustrated in Figure 8. Furthermore, categorical data on types of vaccination, disease occurrence category and disease control policies are important. However, in order for disease data to be comparable, it is important to report disease data using the World Organisation for Animal Health (OIE) disease terminology and occurrence categories (OIE 2004).


Table 5.   Indicator to monitor livestock health in a last five year period

Indicator

Description

Cases per 10,000

Number of affected animals by the disease (sick amimals + animals that died from the disease) during the period divided by the species population times 10,000

Cases, total

Number of affected animals by the disease (sick amimals + animals that died from the disease) during the period

Deaths, total

Number of animals that died from the disease during the period;

Deaths per 10,000

Number of animals that died from the disease during the period divided by the species population times 10,000

Destroyed, total

Number of animals killed for disease control purposes during the period whose carcases were destroyed

Number of years with disease

The number of years in which the disease in question occured within a country during the period

Outbreaks, total

Number of occurrences of the disease in question within a country during the period

Vaccination, total

The number of animals vaccinated against the disease in question during the period

Vaccination coverage

Number of animals vaccinated against the disease in question during the period divided by the species population expressed as a percentage


Figure 8.   African swine fever disease occurrence in 2002 (Source: FAO 2005c)


Conclusions

References

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Received 4 November 2005; Accepted 10 July 2006; Published 6 September 2006

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